Ben Willee, executive director – media and data at Spinach Advertising, said looking at the latest SMI numbers is a bit like checking your bank balance after a long weekend. You already know it’s not going to be good.
“The market is back about 5.2% year on year, which on the surface doesn’t look great. But context matters,” he said.
“We’re coming off a very strong, election-fuelled period, so these were always going to be tough comparisons.
“What’s more interesting is why we’re seeing this softness. Consumer confidence is shaky, inflation is still hanging around, and the prospect of further interest rate pressure means businesses are understandably cautious.
“That caution is showing up in media investment. TV is down more than 10%, radio is off, and digital has softened as well. But there are some bright spots. Outdoor is holding up, streaming continues to grow, and importantly, February has now been revised into positive territory.
“And that’s the key point. Money is still there, it’s just arriving later and being spent more carefully.
“In environments like this, history tells us the brands that keep investing tend to come out stronger, because share of voice gets cheaper when everyone else goes quiet.
“So yes, the numbers are a bit soft, but they’re not as scary as they first look.”
